Rainfall variability in tropical Africa: Some implications for policy

Rain is the basic ingredient for the existence of Africa and its people. This article introduces the ‘baseline’ rainfall climatology of Africa and looks at examples of fluctuations in the last 50 years. The author then puts forward some suggestions on the implications of such variability for planning and policy making.     

The political economy of participation in IMF programs: a disaggregated empirical analysis

What factors determine whether or not countries have programs with the International Monetary Fund (IMF)? The existing literature suggests that a number of economic and political variables are important, but there is disagreement about their relative significance. Moreover, the fit of general participation models is not particularly good. An increasingly popular view in the recent literature is that the pattern of IMF lending is politically driven and that it reflects the interests of the Fund’s leading shareholders; the US is seen as exerting a powerful influence. Using both quantitative and qualitative techniques, and based on an informal analytical framework, we examine in detail the factors that may be at work. We cover the period from 1984 to 2008. We discover considerable variation across the nature of programs (concessional and non-concessional), income levels, geographic regions, and time periods. The degree of observed variation means that it is unsafe to use one general participation model as the basis for evaluating the effects of IMF programs. It also means that the design of policy needs to reflect the nuances that the data reveal.     

Non-Governmental Organizations, Shareholder Activism, and Socially Responsible Investments: Ethical, Strategic, and Governance Implications

In this article, we document the growing influence of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in the realm of socially responsible investing (SRI). Drawing from ethical and economic perspectives on stakeholder management and agency theory, we develop a framework to understand how and when NGOs will be most influential in shaping the ethical and social responsibility orientations of business using the emergence of SRI as the primary influencing vehicle. We find that NGOs have opportunities to influence corporate conduct via direct, indirect, and interactive influences on the investment community, and that the overall influence of NGOs as major actors in socially responsible investment is growing, with attendant consequences for corporate strategy, governance, and social performance.     

Ethical Orientation and Awareness of Tourism Students

The tourism industry is one of the largest industries in the world, and despite recent events that have made its operating environment more complex, the industry continues to grow [Theobald, 2005, Global Tourism, 3rd edn., Butterworth-Heinemann/Elsevier]. Commensurate to the size of the industry is a growth in the number of students pursuing degree courses in tourism around the world. Despite an increasingly sophisticated literature, the relative recency of the industry and its study has meant little attention has been paid in the ethics literature to the dilemmas facing tourism managers and its students. Based on interviews with senior members of the tourism industry six scenarios are developed with pertinence to the challenges faced by industry practitioners today. This paper then applies the Multidimensional Ethics Scale [Reidenbach and Robin, 1990, Journal of Business Ethics, 9, 639–653] to tourism students at three prominent universities in the U.K., Canada and Australia. In total, 438 responses are achieved. The results have importance for the instruction of tourism students for the future, but also in informing decisions about the tools tourism destinations can effectively employ to control the future direction of the industry     

The ethical benefits of trust-based partnering: the example of the construction industry

As inter-organisational relations represent an increasingly important element in business the ability to build sustainable relationships becomes a key skill. To achieve sustainable relationships parties need to move from a low trust/low ethics base to a high trust/high ethics base in their relating. This paper uses data from a study into trust-based partnering in the construction industry to demonstrate that ethics is integral to trust building. The data supports the proposition that ethical partnering, which is characterised by reliability, delivery of promises, open and honest communications, respect and reciprocity, and a willingness to act reasonably towards each other, is the most effective model for parties seeking to build sustainable relationships.     

Agrarian movements and rural populism in Indonesia

In this article, we reflect on the changing trajectories of agrarian movements in Indonesia. In the two decades after independence, a left-populist alliance of peasants, plantation workers, and other affiliate organizations achieved a mass following and were embraced by President Sukarno. In the aftermath of their violent destruction, the Suharto regime reordered agrarian movements into a single corporatist model. Suharto's downfall opened the way for the re-emergence of agrarian organizations and movements. But two decades later, they remain small and fragmented, with little influence at the national level. In the changing conditions of rural life, and the increasingly authoritarian political context, progressive rural movements face dilemmas on questions both of their focus and goals and of tactical alliances with other progressive movements and political elites. A broader, more inclusive progressive populist alliance is a possibility, but with the continuing danger of co-optation by forces of the populist right.     

Evaluation of medical costs associated with use of new oral anticoagulants compared with standard therapy among venous thromboembolism patients

Objective:

This study evaluated differences in medical costs associated with clinical end-points from randomized clinical trials that compared the new oral anticoagulants (NOACs), dabigatran, rivaroxaban, apixaban, and edoxaban, to standard therapy for treatment of patients with venous thromboembolism (VTE).

Research design and methods:

Event rates of efficacy and safety end-points from the clinical trials (RE-COVER, RE-COVER II, EINSTEIN-Pooled, AMPLIFY, Hokusai-VTE trial) were obtained from published literature. Incremental annual medical costs among patients with clinical events from a US payer perspective were obtained from the literature or healthcare claims databases and inflation adjusted to 2013 costs. Differences in total medical costs associated with clinical end-points for the NOACs vs standard therapy were then estimated. One-way and Monte Carlo sensitivity analyses were carried out.

Results:

A lower rate of major bleedings was associated with use of any of the NOACs vs standard therapy. Except for dabigatran, use of NOACs was also associated with a lower rate of recurrent VTE/death. As a result of the reduction in clinical event rates, the overall medical cost differences were ?$146, ?$482, ?$918, and ?$344 for VTE patients treated with dabigatran, rivaroxaban, apixaban, and edoxaban, respectively, vs patients treated with standard therapy.

Conclusions:

When any of the four NOACs are used instead of standard therapy for acute VTE, treatment medical costs are reduced. Apixaban is associated with the greatest reduction in medical costs, which is driven by medical cost reductions associated with both efficacy and safety end-points. Further evaluation may be needed to validate these results in the real-world setting.     

Good timing: The economics of optimal stopping

This paper presents an economic interpretation of the optimal “stopping” of perpetual project opportunities under both certainty and uncertainty. Prior to stopping, the expected rate of return from delay exceeds the rate of interest. The expected rate of return from delay is the sum of the expected rate of change in project value and the expected rate of change in the option premium associated with waiting. At stopping the expected rate of return from delay has fallen to the rate of interest. Viewing stopping in this way unifies the theoretical and practical insights of the theory of stopping under certainty and uncertainty.     

Exploring transport to arts and cultural activities as a facilitator of social inclusion

This paper explores the relationship between travel and social inclusion in relation to a relatively rarely examined group of travel destinations—arts and cultural activities. This paper examines travel behaviour to arts and cultural activities and how this relates to social inclusion. Research literature associated with these issues is examined and then an analysis of a household travel survey in Melbourne, Australia, is undertaken to explore how travel to arts and cultural activities varies by income, car ownership and location. The paper outlines a range of evidence linking participation in arts and cultural activities and positive outcomes for social inclusion. Arts and cultural activities do not fit well into traditional household travel survey definitions of trip purposes. There is also no definitional difference between travel to activities and ‘participation’ or ‘attendance’ in arts and cultural activities. This is unfortunate since social outcomes may vary by participation or attendance. Travel survey analysis shows that like other activities trip rates to arts and cultural activities increase with income. However higher participation is demonstrated for zero- and one-car households, which contrasts with previous research of work, education and social travel. Higher participation is also demonstrated for those living in inner parts of the city. The paper suggests that most travel to arts and cultural activity is quite localised and hence much travel may be led by the diversity and range of local opportunities provided. These are particularly high in inner parts of the city. A high share of travel is also demonstrated for older people, who are thought to have the time and desire for greater participation in arts and cultural activities.